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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP