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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to LV 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model