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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 93

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SF 44, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.44 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 93, worth -5.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 51, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model