Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: -0.215 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Nick Foles (IND): -0.252 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- NYG defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
IND
NYG
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 02:29 FG IND (2:29) 7-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 3 – NYG 0
- Q2 10:44 TD NYG (10:44) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 80-R.James for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NYG 6
- Q2 04:26 TD NYG (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 18-I.Hodgins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NYG 13
- Q2 01:54 TD NYG (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 21-L.Collins at NYG 48. 21-L.Collins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NYG 20
- Q2 00:05 FG NYG (:05) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. IND 3 – NYG 24
- Q3 10:46 TD NYG (10:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – NYG 30
- Q3 02:13 TD IND (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence]. IND 9 – NYG 31
- Q4 12:04 TD NYG (12:04) 8-D.Jones left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – NYG 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(12:20) 6-M.Haack punts 42 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-R.James.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%
(8:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.09 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(2:29) 7-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
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Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:20) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NYG 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-57-J.Domann.
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Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:50) 6-M.Haack punts 22 yards to NYG 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 77%
(14:04) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
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Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 79%
(6:43) (No Huddle) 21-Z.Moss right guard to NYG 22 for 6 yards (54-J.Smith; 29-X.McKinney).
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Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 18Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%
(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to NYG 11 for 7 yards (37-F.Moreau).
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Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(8:43) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-R.James.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 27 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 80%
(2:00) 23-G.Brightwell right guard to IND 29 for -2 yards (45-E.Speed).