Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 10 – New York Giants 38

(8:43) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model