Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Giants 7

(9:20) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NYG 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-57-J.Domann.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model