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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Giants 31

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (No Huddle) 21-Z.Moss right guard to NYG 22 for 6 yards (54-J.Smith; 29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model