4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

PHI
45.7%
DAL
54.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to PHI: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.160 vs Gardner Minshew (PHI) +0.259 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Gardner Minshew in place of Jalen Hurts)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

PHI

Jalen Hurts QB Out right Shoulder
Tyree Jackson TE Out Knee
Zach Pascal WR Questionable Concussion

DAL

Sam Williams DE Out Concussion
Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Illness
Dorance Armstrong DE Questionable Knee
Jake Ferguson TE Questionable Concussion
Micah Parsons LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 34
–
DAL 40

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:18 FG PHI (11:18) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. PHI 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 09:28 TD PHI (9:28) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 94-J.Sweat at DAL 42. 94-J.Sweat for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – DAL 0
  • Q1 01:54 TD DAL (1:54) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – DAL 6
  • Q2 11:41 TD DAL (11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – DAL 13
  • Q2 07:15 TD PHI (7:15) 10-G.Minshew up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – DAL 14
  • Q2 01:52 FG DAL (1:52) 19-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 17 – DAL 17
  • Q2 00:11 FG PHI (:11) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. Penalty on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 20 – DAL 17
  • Q3 09:05 TD PHI (9:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 26 – DAL 17
  • Q3 05:05 FG DAL (5:05) 19-B.Maher 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 27 – DAL 20
  • Q3 02:19 TD DAL (2:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – DAL 26
  • Q4 10:03 TD PHI (10:03) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-J.Kearse, Defensive Holding, declined. PHI 33 – DAL 27
  • Q4 05:53 TD DAL (5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 34 – DAL 33
  • Q4 02:24 FG DAL (2:24) 19-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 34 – DAL 37
  • Q4 01:44 FG DAL (1:44) 19-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 34 – DAL 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (11:18) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:15) 10-G.Minshew up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (1:52) 19-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 82%

    (:11) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. Penalty on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:45) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to PHI 23, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%

    (9:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:25) 21-E.Elliott right end ran ob at PHI 44 for 22 yards (22-M.Epps).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%

    (5:05) 19-B.Maher 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 82%

    (2:24) 19-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (1:44) 19-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown.