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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 19-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP