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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(:11) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. Penalty on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.11 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model