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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 37 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 19-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 8, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model