Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CIN offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- QB edge to CIN: Jacoby Brissett (CLE) -0.015 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.144 EPA/dropback
- CLE offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- CLE defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CIN defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
CIN
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 05:07 TD CLE (5:07) (Shotgun) 68-M.Dunn and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 24-N.Chubb. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 6
- Q2 00:04 FG CLE (:04) 3-C.York 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CIN 0 – CLE 11
- Q3 09:05 TD CLE (9:05) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 17
- Q3 03:14 TD CLE (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CLE 24
- Q4 14:22 TD CIN (14:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 25
- Q4 08:51 TD CLE (8:51) 68-M.Dunn and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 31
- Q4 06:48 TD CIN (6:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett]. CIN 12 – CLE 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%
(6:23) 3-C.York 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-B.Hill), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 18 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:15) 10-K.Huber punts 23 yards to CLE 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 37%
(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 30 for 15 yards (42-T.Fields; 43-J.Johnson).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EPp(convert) 63%
(10:56) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CLE 22, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%
(:44) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 61%
(:04) 3-C.York 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:36) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to CLE 29, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 40 for 11 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither; 31-M.Thomas).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 53%
(5:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 10 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 64 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(4:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd (23-M.Emerson).