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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 8 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 3-C.York 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model