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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP