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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 32

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd (23-M.Emerson).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.38 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model