KC @ SF — 4th & Data

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HC Andy Reid

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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan

Sunday 2022-10-23 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

58.4%

41.6%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

KC offense: +0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
SF defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
QB edge to KC: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.144 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.301 EPA/dropback
SF offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
KC defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 25

–

SF 24

Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

KC

Rashad Fenton CB Out Hamstring

Joe Thuney G Questionable Ankle

Michael Danna DE Questionable Calf

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot

Talanoa Hufanga S Questionable Concussion

Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 44

–

SF 23

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:26 FG SF (10:26) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. KC 0 – SF 3
Q1 06:36 TD SF (6:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 3-R.McCloud for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-90-T.Stallworth, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 0 – SF 9
Q1 02:14 TD KC (2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 12 YAC KC 6 – SF 10
Q2 12:15 FG SF (12:15) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. KC 7 – SF 13
Q2 07:17 TD KC (7:17) 17-M.Hardman right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – SF 13
Q3 13:34 TD KC (13:34) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – SF 13
Q3 07:46 FG SF (7:46) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. KC 21 – SF 16
Q3 03:35 TD KC (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC KC 27 – SF 16
Q4 14:20 TD SF (14:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC KC 28 – SF 22
Q4 10:48 TD KC (10:48) 17-M.Hardman left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – SF 23
Q4 08:55 SAF KC (8:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY (55-F.Clark). KC 37 – SF 23
Q4 06:15 TD KC (6:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 31 YAC KC 43 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

(10:26) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

(12:15) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q2 SF 4th & 19 at the 38

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 59%

(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-26-S.Womack at KC 12.
Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

(7:46) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 48 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 33%

(3:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to SF 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.