4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 31

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model