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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-26-S.Womack at KC 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.79 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP