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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP