Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CIN defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.153 vs Marcus Mariota (ATL) +0.110 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:07 TD CIN (13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CIN 6
- Q1 04:55 TD CIN (4:55) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CIN 13
- Q2 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CIN 20
- Q2 04:49 TD ATL (4:49) 25-T.Allgeier left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CIN 21
- Q2 00:57 TD CIN (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – CIN 27
- Q2 00:49 TD ATL (:49) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 14-D.Byrd for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – CIN 28
- Q2 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 17 – CIN 28
- Q3 05:28 TD CIN (5:28) 9-J.Burrow up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – CIN 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CIN 8, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 21 yards (53-N.Kwiatkoski).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(3:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CIN 25, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(:20) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to ATL 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 35-A.Williams to CIN 25 for 56 yards (51-M.Bailey).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(14:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CIN 28, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 43 for 15 yards (32-J.Hawkins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 82%
(11:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Higgins (22-C.Armstrong).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(9:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CIN 23, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. ATL-28-M.Ford was injured during the play. PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 23.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 15 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CIN 17, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 21 for 4 yards (12-K.Hodge).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:12) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 35-A.Williams to ATL 20 for 8 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(8:54) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CIN 5, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-12-K.Hodge. PENALTY on CIN-44-C.Johnston, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at CIN 5.
See the full breakdown →
