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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(:20) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to ATL 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 35-A.Williams to CIN 25 for 56 yards (51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -1.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model