4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CIN 25, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model