Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

(14:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CIN 28, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 43 for 15 yards (32-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model