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Tennessee Titans

2-2 HC Mike Vrabel
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Indianapolis Colts

1-2-1 HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 💨 Windy Spread 4.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
56.4%
IND
43.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (IND): -0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: -0.020 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • IND defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Wind 15 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21 14–28
–
IND 20 13–27
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Ugochukwu Amadi S Out Ankle
Zach Cunningham LB Out Elbow
Amani Hooker S Out Concussion
Cody Hollister WR Questionable Back
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi LB Questionable Neck
Roger McCreary CB Questionable Back
Kyle Philips WR Questionable Shoulder

IND

Julian Blackmon S Out Ankle
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Elbow
Shaquille Leonard LB Questionable Back
Bernhard Raimann T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 24
–
IND 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:04 TD TEN (8:04) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 2-R.Woods for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 03:53 TD TEN (3:53) 22-D.Henry right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 0
  • Q2 13:28 FG IND (13:28) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. TEN 14 – IND 3
  • Q2 09:44 FG TEN (9:44) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 17 – IND 3
  • Q2 07:46 TD TEN (7:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-53-S.Leonard was injured during the play. TEN 23 – IND 3
  • Q2 02:20 TD IND (2:20) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-21-R.McCreary, Illegal Contact, declined. TEN 24 – IND 9
  • Q3 07:31 TD IND (7:31) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 24 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:12) 6-M.Haack punts 48 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (13:28) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (9:44) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to IND 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 21 for 6 yards (42-J.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%

    (15:00) 6-M.Haack punts 19 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to IND 22, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-42-J.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 24 for 14 yards (25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on TEN-46-M.Cox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 24.

    See the full breakdown →