TEN @ IND — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Vrabel

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich

Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN

51.4%

IND

48.6%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Matt Ryan (IND): -0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
IND offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
IND defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): +0.019 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22

–

IND 21

Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Ugochukwu Amadi S Out Ankle

Zach Cunningham LB Out Elbow

Amani Hooker S Out Concussion

Cody Hollister WR Questionable Back

Olasunkanmi Adeniyi LB Questionable Neck

Roger McCreary CB Questionable Back

Kyle Philips WR Questionable Shoulder

IND

Julian Blackmon S Out Ankle

DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Elbow

Shaquille Leonard LB Questionable Back

Bernhard Raimann T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 24

–

IND 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:04 TD TEN (8:04) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 2-R.Woods for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 0
Q1 03:53 TD TEN (3:53) 22-D.Henry right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 0
Q2 13:28 FG IND (13:28) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. TEN 14 – IND 3
Q2 09:44 FG TEN (9:44) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 17 – IND 3
Q2 07:46 TD TEN (7:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-53-S.Leonard was injured during the play. TEN 23 – IND 3
Q2 02:20 TD IND (2:20) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-21-R.McCreary, Illegal Contact, declined. TEN 24 – IND 9
Q3 07:31 TD IND (7:31) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 24 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(7:12) 6-M.Haack punts 48 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.
Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

(13:28) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

(9:44) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(12:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to IND 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(5:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 21 for 6 yards (42-J.Jones).
Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 39

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 53%

(15:00) 6-M.Haack punts 19 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 72

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP

p(convert) 62%

(13:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to IND 22, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-42-J.Jones.
Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 65 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(4:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 24 for 14 yards (25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on TEN-46-M.Cox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 24.