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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to IND 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.58 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model