Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(5:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 21 for 6 yards (42-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model