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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to IND 22, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-42-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP