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Kansas City Chiefs

3-1 HC Andy Reid
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-2 HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 20:20 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

KC
52.1%
TB
47.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Tom Brady (TB) +0.109 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.307 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 25 18–32
–
TB 24 17–31
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Michael Danna DE Out Calf
Harrison Butker K Questionable left Ankle
Joshua Kaindoh DE Questionable Illness
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR Questionable Abdomen

TB

Akiem Hicks DT Out Foot
Breshad Perriman WR Doubtful Knee
Russell Gage WR Questionable Hamstring
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Hamstring
Donovan Smith T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 41
–
TB 31

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:20 TD KC (14:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 10:17 FG TB (10:17) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. KC 7 – TB 3
  • Q1 04:07 TD KC (4:07) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-J.McKinnon. 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – TB 3
  • Q2 11:35 TD KC (11:35) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-K.Neal]. KC 20 – TB 3
  • Q2 08:55 TD TB (8:55) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – TB 9
  • Q2 02:15 TD KC (2:15) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:15 TD TB (:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – TB 16
  • Q3 11:31 FG KC (11:31) 19-M.Wright 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 31 – TB 17
  • Q3 05:46 TD KC (5:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 88-J.Fortson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 37 – TB 17
  • Q3 00:47 TD TB (:47) 29-R.White right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 38 – TB 23
  • Q4 10:51 FG KC (10:51) 19-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 41 – TB 24
  • Q4 03:35 TD TB (3:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 41 – TB 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 84%

    (10:17) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to KC 18, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 71%

    (5:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (11:31) 19-M.Wright 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 30 yards to KC 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 95%

    (10:51) 19-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:52) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TB 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

    See the full breakdown →