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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.71 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP