Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

(10:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 30 yards to KC 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model