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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 34

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model