4th & Data
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-10-02 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CLE
47.7%
ATL
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Marcus Mariota (ATL) +0.213 vs Jacoby Brissett (CLE) -0.047 EPA/dropback
  • ATL defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CLE on 3 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

CLE 23
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CLE

Taven Bryan DT Out Hamstring
Joe Haeg T Out Concussion
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Ankle
Myles Garrett DE Questionable Shoulder

ATL

Cordarrelle Patterson RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 20
–
ATL 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:40 FG ATL (3:40) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CLE 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 01:29 TD ATL (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – ATL 9
  • Q2 07:42 TD CLE (7:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:11 FG CLE (:11) 3-C.York 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – ATL 10
  • Q3 03:12 FG CLE (3:12) 3-C.York 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 13 – ATL 10
  • Q4 12:56 TD ATL (12:56) (No Huddle) 42-C.Huntley left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – ATL 16
  • Q4 09:58 TD CLE (9:58) 24-N.Chubb left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 19 – ATL 17
  • Q4 07:23 FG ATL (7:23) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CLE 20 – ATL 20
  • Q4 02:33 FG ATL (2:33) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. CLE 20 – ATL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (10:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Njoku [97-G.Jarrett].

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:40) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 57%

    (12:35) 7-J.Brissett left guard to ATL 37 for 2 yards (95-T.Graham; 54-R.Evans).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to CLE 19, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 20 for 1 yard (28-M.Ford).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (4:35) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett right guard to CLE 32 for 3 yards (3-M.Walker).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (:11) 3-C.York 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CLE 22, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to ATL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 35-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 18 yards (30-D.Johnson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to ATL 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-A.Green.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 83%

    (3:12) 3-C.York 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (7:23) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (3:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to ATL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-33-R.Harrison.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 83%

    (2:33) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.