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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett right guard to CLE 32 for 3 yards (3-M.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model