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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 11

Cleveland Browns 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:11) 3-C.York 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model