Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(12:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to ATL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 35-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 18 yards (30-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.39 EP
57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model