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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Monday 2022-09-19 · 19:15 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TEN
27.3%
BUF
72.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.241 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.210 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TEN

Kristian Fulton CB Out Hamstring
Dontrell Hilliard RB Out Hamstring
Jamarco Jones T Out Elbow
Kyle Philips WR Questionable Shoulder

BUF

Ed Oliver DT Out Ankle
Tim Settle DT Doubtful Calf
Dane Jackson CB Questionable Knee
Gabe Davis WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 7
–
BUF 41

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:16 TD BUF (9:16) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 41-R.Gilliam for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 05:27 TD TEN (5:27) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 07:25 FG BUF (7:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. TEN 7 – BUF 10
  • Q2 01:07 TD BUF (1:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – BUF 16
  • Q3 10:26 TD BUF (10:26) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – BUF 23
  • Q3 07:36 FG BUF (7:36) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. TEN 7 – BUF 27
  • Q3 05:38 TD BUF (5:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – BUF 33
  • Q3 03:58 TD BUF (3:58) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 58-M.Milano at TEN 43. 58-M.Milano for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – BUF 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (5:27) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 72%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 20-Z.Moss (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 72%

    (7:25) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 29 for 15 yards (42-J.Jones). PENALTY on TEN-30-T.Avery, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 29.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 20%

    (8:33) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to TEN 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-K.Philips MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-53-T.Dodson at TEN 20. 53-T.Dodson ran ob at TEN 20 for no gain.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (7:36) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 20 for 12 yards (42-J.Jones). PENALTY on BUF-85-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 8. Penalty on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. Penalty enforced from the end of the kick (0 yd. return).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:51) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to TEN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 37-A.Hooker MUFFS catch, recovered by TEN-30-T.Avery at TEN 36.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:34) 8-S.Martin punts 50 yards to TEN 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:52) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 33 for 16 yards (85-C.Okonkwo, 42-J.Jones).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 84%

    (3:43) 28-J.Cook right guard to TEN 23 for 2 yards (30-T.Avery).