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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model