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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 7 – Buffalo Bills 41

What Actually Happened

(:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to BUF 20 for 12 yards (42-J.Jones). PENALTY on BUF-85-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at BUF 8. Penalty on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. Penalty enforced from the end of the kick (0 yd. return).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP