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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 4

Buffalo Bills 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model