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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2022-01-23 · 18:30 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

BUF
45.4%
KC
54.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.178 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.125 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
KC 26
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

BUF

No players on the report.

KC

Rashad Fenton CB Questionable Back
Darrel Williams RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 36
–
KC 42

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:07 TD BUF (8:07) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – KC 0
  • Q1 02:36 TD KC (2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – KC 6
  • Q2 01:58 TD KC (1:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-B.Pringle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. BUF 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:42 TD BUF (:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – KC 14
  • Q3 07:05 FG KC (7:05) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 14 – KC 17
  • Q3 02:14 TD KC (2:14) 17-M.Hardman left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – KC 23
  • Q3 02:06 TD BUF (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – KC 23
  • Q4 08:58 FG KC (8:58) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 21 – KC 26
  • Q4 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – KC 26
  • Q4 01:13 TD KC (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 29 – KC 32
  • Q4 00:17 TD BUF (:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 35 – KC 33
  • Q4 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 36 – KC 36
  • Q5 10:50 TD KC (10:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 36 – KC 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 29%

    (12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to KC 40 for 10 yards (32-T.Mathieu; 90-J.Reed).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 20 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 27%

    (12:11) 3-M.Haack punts 50 yards to KC 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 93
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to BUF 43, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 27%

    (8:50) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to KC 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 54%

    (10:06) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon pushed ob at BUF 20 for 20 yards (30-D.Jackson).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (7:05) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:00) 3-M.Haack punts 42 yards to KC 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-M.Hughes to KC 39 for 15 yards (46-Jaq.Johnson).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 38%

    (13:33) 5-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to BUF 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:44) 3-M.Haack punts 46 yards to KC 39, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-T.Hill to BUF 16 for 45 yards (3-M.Haack; 9-A.Smith).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (8:58) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 78%

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end pushed ob at KC 24 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 13 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 83%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.