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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP