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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to KC 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.80 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP