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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to KC 40 for 10 yards (32-T.Mathieu; 90-J.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.66 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -3.27 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model