Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- BUF offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- BUF defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- NE defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to NE: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.100 vs Mac Jones (NE) +0.157 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 19
NE
BUF
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:58 TD BUF (9:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon]. NE 0 – BUF 6
- Q1 00:45 TD BUF (:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – BUF 13
- Q2 07:24 TD BUF (7:24) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NE 0 – BUF 20
- Q2 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) 26-D.Singletary right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: R.Gilliam, I.McKenzie. NE 0 – BUF 26
- Q2 00:06 FG NE (:06) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – BUF 27
- Q3 08:56 TD BUF (8:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 1-E.Sanders for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – BUF 33
- Q3 04:16 TD NE (4:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – BUF 33
- Q4 13:27 TD BUF (13:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – BUF 39
- Q4 08:41 TD BUF (8:41) 72-T.Doyle reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 72-T.Doyle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – BUF 46
- Q4 01:49 TD NE (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – BUF 47
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 73%
(13:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to BUF 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.
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Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 25%
(3:53) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 11 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater).
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%
(:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers to BUF 26 for 19 yards (24-Ta.Johnson).
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Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(4:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(10:32) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde to NE 39 for 52 yards (18-M.Slater).
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Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(5:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 3 yards (46-Jaq.Johnson, 47-C.Lewis). PENALTY on BUF-57-A.Epenesa, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 49.
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Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(1:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.