Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 62

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 40

(10:32) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to BUF 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde to NE 39 for 52 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.72 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model