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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to BUF 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP