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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 54

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 47

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 3 yards (46-Jaq.Johnson, 47-C.Lewis). PENALTY on BUF-57-A.Epenesa, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 49.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.38 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model