Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SEA offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
SEA
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 14:55 TD ARI (14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 16 for -9 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-94-Z.Allen at SEA 16. 94-Z.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – ARI 6
- Q1 12:34 TD SEA (12:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – ARI 7
- Q2 11:48 FG ARI (11:48) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. SEA 7 – ARI 10
- Q2 07:45 TD SEA (7:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – ARI 10
- Q2 01:25 FG SEA (1:25) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – ARI 10
- Q3 11:11 TD ARI (11:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – ARI 16
- Q3 09:29 TD ARI (9:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – ARI 23
- Q3 02:02 TD SEA (2:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-F.Swain for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – ARI 24
- Q4 13:22 TD SEA (13:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – ARI 24
- Q4 06:18 FG ARI (6:18) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. SEA 31 – ARI 27
- Q4 04:45 TD SEA (4:45) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 37 – ARI 27
- Q4 01:17 FG ARI (1:17) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. SEA 38 – ARI 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 72%
(11:09) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-F.Swain to SEA 22 for 13 yards (81-D.Daniels).
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Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 26%
(7:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to ARI 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 80Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(5:35) (No Huddle) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 22 for 2 yards (57-C.Barton).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 88%
(11:48) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%
(1:25) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%
(6:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to ARI 12, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-39-N.Warrior.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EPp(convert) 74%
(4:48) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-F.Swain to SEA 38 for 7 yards (46-A.Brewer, 35-T.Whitehead). PENALTY on SEA-34-J.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 38.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(6:18) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%
(1:17) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.