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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model