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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to ARI 12, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-39-N.Warrior.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.27 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model